Wildfires have become worse over the last two decades. Not only are fire seasons longer, but the number of fires has increased, as has their intensity. Government agencies contain 95% of wildfires but it’s the other 5% that result in catastrophic events annually, occurring in more and more regions around the world. These fires result in loss of life, property and natural resources, further contributing to climate change, producing smoke and large quantities of carbon dioxide.

Airtankers slow not extinguish

Less than 5% of wildfires consume more than 80% of wildfire suppression costs, not even factoring in the cost of losses. A fast initial attack supported by airtankers to contain a wildfire is needed to prevent disaster. Airtankers arrive at a fire before ground crews, suppressing flames to buy firefighters time. Leaving the fire to burn until ground crews arrive runs the risk of it growing exponentially in a very short period of time with the right combination of wind, dry fuels, low humidity and high heat. It takes just seconds in some cases for a fire to grow so large that an initial attack to contain is impossible, resulting in a wildfire that requires long term, sustained response for days, weeks, or even months.

Fast attack requires both amphibious and land-based airtankers

A fast initial attack means a government agency needs airtanker resources as part of their wildfire management strategy. These airtankers are either owned and operated by governments or contracted from private companies. Airtankers are either water scooping, designed specifically for firefighting, such as the CL415 or AT802 Fire Boss, or land-based, delivering retardant, converted from military or commercial aircraft into airtankers. Water on a fire cools the flames to suppress its heat while retardant is placed around the outer perimeter of a fire to slow its advance. Both water and retardant are needed on a wildfire for maximum initial attack impact. An agency wishing to execute a comprehensive response needs both amphibious plus land-based airtankers in their fleet.

Lack of supply, growing demand

The challenge that agencies are grappling with today is that airtanker fleet growth and modernization is not keeping pace with wildfire activity and need. Many airtankers are aging, many decades old and no longer in production, subject to lack of parts availability and rising maintenance costs, keeping fleets on the ground longer. Not the ideal scenario when the airtanker is an emergency response aircraft.

And airtankers are not in mass production globally, translating into a lack of supply. New CL415 water bombers haven’t been produced since 2015. And De Havilland Canada, who purchased the program from Bombardier, is still in the early planning and production phase for their new CL515, with years until the first airtanker delivery, likely to be 2027 at earliest. Air Tractor Europe has orders for over 30 AT802 Fire Boss, an amphibious airtanker requiring two aircraft to equal the payload of one CL415, at significantly lower cost, but those deliveries will be spread from 2024 through 2026, with new orders extending beyond. That leaves a minimum two fire seasons with few new airtankers globally, and potentially many more years for government agencies not first on delivery lists.

Private operators manufacture their own aerial firefighting aircraft, converting military or commercial aircraft into large airtankers, for sale or contract to government agencies. But the expense, expertise and time required to accomplish this feat, plus to have the airtankers certified by aviation and wildfire authorities, is significant. There are only few privately owned companies in the world capable of this endeavor, and as such, supply is very limited. One company manufacturing modern large airtankers for global operation is Conair, who produce a Dash 8-400AT every 75 days. But as soon as one is completed, it goes into operation, with orders for airtanker purchases now extending into 2025.

A proactive response: act now

In the past, government agencies have been able to rely on emergency response contracts with private aerial firefighting companies to provide the adequate surge support needed during their fire season. These short-term contracts, often for small periods of time during a year, place all the risk on the private aerial firefighting companies, with tenders issued at the start of the fire season or even during critical peak periods. Companies have to bear the enormous financial risk of completing heavy maintenance over the winter and hiring and training crews to be prepared for short notice deployment, without knowing if they will be able to recoup their costs. For companies expanding their fleet, airtankers sitting idle, not under contract, can spell financial disaster.

Government agencies who have faced wildfires for decades, such as Canada, have a long history of securing airtanker fleets from private agencies under long-term, multi-year contracts, ensuring they have access to airtankers when needed the most. The agreements are typically for a significant portion of the fire season, for example 120 days, and extended over 5 to 15 years. These long term contracts are a huge benefit to both government agencies and private companies. Governments realize significantly lower daily rates and hourly flight costs than they would achieve on emergency short-term contracts, plus have the security of knowing they have a fleet ready to respond. Private companies have the security of knowing their costs are covered, even if the fire season is slow, enabling them the ability to incorporate new technologies and improved training, all resulting in safer, more effective outcomes.

The year has only just begun but 2024 looks to be a very challenging year for government agencies who have not already secured long-term contracts for large airtankers. The global tenders issued in the first quarter of the year are far higher than the norm, especially in mature markets like North America, with fleets expanding on a long-term basis. Agencies around the world who have delayed their tender process to be nearer the start of their fire season, or who are looking to only contract for one year, will likely be left with little to no choice of what to contract, if they can find available inventory. And those that fail to secure airtankers by spring, will likely be reliant on the sharing of resources from other government agencies during peak fire season, hoping that wildfires will not all occur at the same time, making shared resources impossible.